Monday, November 19, 2007

The death of illusions...

When it sounds too good to be true, it is. This is perhaps the wisest thing ever written, said or thought.

Let's see, what's the short version? How about this: I'm fairly certain we were used as supporting characters in the Realtor's one-act play. We drove all the way out to their office on Friday night to be told that, Oops! the listing agent forgot to mention that this was a short sale situation. I thought that was odd--didn't investors usually initiate short sales? The bank initiated it? Huh? Also, based on the price ($199K) we figured the owner must have refinanced, or something.

So, on the advice of a sort of mentor of ours, I examined all of the active listings in the complex and in the same zip code, I looked at the comps (of which there were few), and I ran some new calculations based on the falling prices around here. (Basically subtracted 15% off of the most reasonable, lowest comp, and THEN ran the 70 percent formula minus repairs/fee.)

They came back at us with charts and graphs showing that it's not that prices aren't falling--it's that inventory is going up!

Yeah, right. Even a liberal arts moron like myself knows a little bit about supply and demand. And get this--I loved this--they said "You won't be able to rent it out for positive cash flow, but it'll even itself out at the end of the year."

So let me get this straight--you want me to buy a ratty two-bedroom condo in the hood that'll cost me money every month on the chance that'll get a tax benefit in a year?

I took a pass that night and told them I'd make an offer the next day.

"This one isn't going to last," they said.

Niether is my patience with ethically challenged business people, I didn't say.

Fortunately the monthly REI club meeting was the next day. I ran the situation by a few people, and they all pretty much backed up my thinking: Offer low or walk away. So, I made an offer of $150K. They said they'd call back in a few hours, which they did. Oh, look at that! They have a cash buyer ready to pay full price! Would we like to counter?

Even I saw this coming a mile away.

"Nope," I said. "More power to your buyer if he can hold on to a money-loser for a year." If he can hold it until it DOES become a money-maker, then he's clearly in a better place than we are.

I gotta say--the game is getting old. Everyone's out to make a quick buck (and I don't exclude myself here) but is it too much to expect that people don't have an angle?

2 comments:

Taylor said...

Good one - 'This one won't last.' I'll have to remember that...

You did right. Run your numbers & stick to them. I've passed on a number of deals that way, but have avoided being stuck with crap on a stick too.

Love the blog - keep it up.

Taylor

Team Benya said...

Good call! I was wondering what happened with that property. Better luck next time, I know how frustrating it can be to find that property that fits your formula.

making the DTI ratio work seems to be exceptionally difficult with all the people involved in upside down mortgages.

Any new prospects on the horizon?